[September 2020] Systems: Overshoot and Collapse

[George Mochrie]

Selecting the film with which to launch our regular online Film & Discussion events has been difficult. Many of the environmental documentaries available are of an introductory level, intended to introduce the facts and persuade people there is a problem. I expect most of us here already have a good grasp of the facts and don't need much persuading, showing such a film would be an exercise in preaching to the choir. Similarly, many films pander to sentimentality and emotion, tugging on the heart strings and pushing emotional buttons. Some promote wallowing in doom while others offer false optimism. I'd like to avoid that too, and instead promote a discussion of the ideas, that we may all benefit from each other's insights.

I hope to share material that is both interesting and informative, that's accessible but not dumbed down, and that presents realistic perspectives on what are complex and multifaceted issues.

Some films may be somewhat controversial, that's often a good way to stimulate a healthy debate, but to begin with too much controversy might be unwise. Also, Planet Sutherland is not a politically partisan organisation; while there is a strong interplay between environmentalism and disciplines such as politics and economics I feel that the introductory offering shouldn't wander too far into these realms.

Our first online film is a 1977 lecture rather than a documentary. Donella Meadows, best known as lead author of the seminal 1972 report The Limits to Growth, discusses ecological systems modelling. First she examines a simple model of the population dynamics of deer on the Kaibab Plateau, before moving on to discuss the more general principles the model demonstrates. Finally she explores the implications of these ecological principles for both pre-industrial and post-industrial human populations.

After watching the film I urge you all to respond with your thoughts, impressions and opinions below. What parts do you agree or disagree with? How does this relate to our own communities and lives? What did you learn? How can we respond to the points raised? What related issues are worthy of note? The advantage of discussing on a forum like this is that everyone gets their say and we can go into as much depth as we like. Every point can be raised and responded to, please take full advantage of this.

If there is interest we can organise an online video discussion (on Zoom) in which we can explore the ideas people post here (almost) in person. If this is something you would like then please say so and tell us when would be a good time for you.

[George Mochrie]

I understand that the film isn't exactly topical, but Limits to Growth has been and remains very influential in much environmental thinking, so I think it's still relevant.

The simplified Limits to Growth model presented all environmental impacts under the single heading of "Pollution". As the effects of human activity are becoming more and more apparent I expect this may have been expanded upon had the work been more recent. Climate Change can be thought of as greenhouse gas pollution, so the model still works, though perhaps lacks detail.

It's interesting that the model predicts collapse occurring due to resource depletion rather than environmental damage, though perhaps that's not a contradiction if one considers nature a resource.

If the model was made today I wonder if a distinction between financial capital and industrial capital would have been made. I have heard it argued that financial capital has decoupled from the real economy, which is why the stock market goes up even though we are in the early stages of a major economic downturn.

[Anna Patfield]

What to do on a rainy run down day but try to spark up the brain with a lecture. Very appropriate that no "Power" point was used Looking forward to hear other's thoughts. Population control obv a touchy subject... Environment is indeed underplayed - but pollution is discussed - and leaving it up to ourselves to consider running other models through. Totally frustrating again of course that science has been able to predict this since... 1850 or whatever... and then this being taught in academia and still nothing done to stop it.
I wonder - i'll need to go back and have a think about money overshoot.
And what a way to keep the population under control - Pig Fest!! .... I'll say no more just now so as not to ruin it for folks who haven't watched it yet.
Cheers for now. Anna

[Peter Moffatt]

Perhaps the significance of Donella Meadows' talk is not so much the actual message she was putting across as the fact that nearly fifty years later we have not even begun to pay serious attention to the problems of resource depletion and environmental damage, even with the current increased awareness of global warming and climate change.

Older Sutherlings may remember the publication in 1972 of the Club of Rome's report 'The Limits to Growth', of which Donella Meadows was one of the authors, which warned of the danger of exponential growth of population, industrial production and pollution, accompanied by the rapid depletion of non-renewable natural resources, leading to societal collapse within the next hundred years - from 1972, which means fifty years from now. In the course of 'getting rid of stuff' last winter I came across a special number of 'Ecologist' magazine for January 1972 entitled 'A Blueprint for Survival', containing serious and well-documented articles and appendices with the same message.

'The Limits to Growth' is out of print, but can be read online or downloaded as a .pdf file (link below). In 2004 the original authors published 'The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update', which is still available in paperback, (I have ordered it but not read it), and in 2012, a 40-year forecast from Jørgen Randers, one of the book's original authors, was published as '2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years'.

What can we do, in the face of the failure of governments, corporations, well-intentioned organisations and individuals to have any serious impact on the threats facing the world? Greta Thunberg has inspired millions of mostly young people across the world to protest about inaction on climate change, and their governments tell them to go back to school. Extinction Rebellion hoped that bringing parts of London and other cities to a halt with widespread civil disobedience would finally force governments to take serious action, only to find themselves branded in advice to police forces as peddling an 'extremist ideology', in company with neo-Nazis and Islamic jihadists. The 'think and do tank' Common Weal has proposed a comprehensive, detailed and fully costed plan for a 'Green New Deal' for an independent Scotland, but has not the slightest chance, in the forseeable future, of being in a position to put it into effect.

How do we get from here to there?

Links
'The Limits to Growth'
http://donellameadows.org/the-limits-to ... ad-online/

'. .The 30-Year Update'
https://blackwells.co.uk/bookshop/product/9781603581554

'2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years'.
https://www.waterstones.com/book/2052/j ... 1603584210

[Anna Patfield]

Hiya Peter,

Thanks for joining our conversation here (for those who don't know, Peter is with Transition Black Isle) . This is as you can see, a new venture in the wake of covid rather than our face to face events - a way of getting something started to see how it goes. Indeed, totally agree that it's crazy that we've known about this since 1850 and still marched on with the path that we were all - or the vast majority were driven down.
I did think it was interesting to look at the science from this systems positive and negative feedback loop and the crazy way that the pig fest tribe survived (again don't want to spoil the story for those who haven't watched).
Sorry to that you're perhaps in a rut just now - i think we're all struggling with the 6 month crisis wall on top of everything else. Happy to have a chat some time about ways to push forward, working together with Transition Black Isle.
Just some quick comments for now - thanks too for sharing the links too, will follow them up.
Cheers for now, Anna

[George Mochrie]

Perhaps the significance of Donella Meadows' talk is not so much the actual message she was putting across as the fact that nearly fifty years later we have not even begun to pay serious attention to the problems of resource depletion and environmental damage, even with the current increased awareness of global warming and climate change.

Sadly I have to agree, that's one of the reasons I chose this particular video. These are not new problems that we have just become aware of. When I was a child back in the '80s people said "we have twenty years to act before it's too late", and we didn't act. Now four decades later people are saying "we have twelve years to act before it's too late", except for many thing it seems it's already too late, arctic ice for instance. Perhaps I'm too cynical, I'd love to be wrong.

Regarding what we can do, I think it's been amply demonstrated that appealing to established power is not a valid strategy. Your comment regarding XR is well taken, any "movement" that threatens the structures that maintain the position of those in charge is bound to be vilified and targeted. After half a century or more of peaceful protest it's clear that the people at the top have no intention of making the required structural changes. Persuading others is always a worthwhile goal, but in the face of a very accomplished advertising and public relations industry this is an asymmetric struggle.

I do not believe the current socioeconomic structure can be rehabilitated. Personally I feel it is best to focus on our own actions, our own lives and personal spheres of influence. If we can build our own structures to provide the essentials of life to people, then perhaps we can begin to tempt them to abandon the global financial/industrial machine that is eating the future and shitting out iPhones. Of course if it looked like such an endeavour was succeeding it would be vilified and targeted, so best not to make a big thing of it, stay under the radar as much as possible.

Too radical? How to influence the mass if the population is a complex and huge topic, one that fascinates me on many levels.

...and thanks for the links

Population control obv a touchy subject

Let's not talk about population control, I suspect nature is going to take care of that shortly, that it's out of our hands now. Instead let's talk about "demographic enlightenment"

Yes, population is certainly a touchy subject, but one that's a key component of humanity's environmental impact, it needs talked about. That's another reason I chose this particular video, it makes it quite clear that population is central, but in a matter-of-fact way that's unlikely to ruffle feathers. Total environmental impact equals the average individual's environmental impact multiplied by the number of individuals. I heard someone say recently: "Talking about the environment without mentioning human population is like talking about putting out a fire without mentioning water", or at least that was the gist of it. I don't think it's stated explicitly in the video but I have heard differing estimates for the point our species entered overshoot, ranging from the late 19th century to the end of the 20th. 1970 seems like a conservative consensus position.

I wonder if the progenitors of the tribe formulated their tradition in cognisance of population and ecology, or if it was a happy accident. In technological post-industrial societies such as ours we often see other ways of being human as primitive and misguided, we think that other cultures want to be like us but just don't know how, but these people have a way of life that can be sustained for aeons. It may be the case that we will be lucky if our way of life can be sustained for a few more decades.

How do we get from here to there?

Sometimes it's just not possible to get from here to there, but that's no reason for not trying. We might not get to there, but we might get to somewhere better than here.

[Anna Patfield]

Sometimes it's just not possible to get from here to there, but that's no reason for not trying. We might not get to there, but we might get to somewhere better than here. ...

and we can enjoy the journey

ps - how do you do these quotey things ?

[George Mochrie]

ps - how do you do these quotey things ?

At the top right of the post there's a quote icon, click that

[Helen Ayres]

Sorry to be so late to the party here, only just made time to watch it.

Thank you George, you picked something that captivated me, I love graphs.

Reading the comments I have to agree, we're still not listening, well PS is and Transition Black Isle and probably many other small groups, but the world isn't. And that is sad. And as individuals and small groups we try to find ways of mitigating. I know on a personally selfish level I reduced my worry and stress by moving up here and owning enough land for self sufficiency, go me. Except I may never be skilled enough to grow my food and I am not so antisocial as to not want all the people around me and my family to thrive too.

I don't have an answer other than to observe that over time some of our less welcome behaviours have become unacceptable. Nobody now advocates beating children, smoking, discharging untreated sewage and many other unwanted behaviours. But they are small fry when we look at the whole picture. The modification behaviours that need to happen on a huge scale are too delayed. The limiting factors described in the film, such as people being satisfied with enough food and industrial output so that things level off is not happening. We measure wealth by GDP, increasing production and consumption of finite resources. There must be a shift to a new economic model, where social factors and wellbeing are the bigger drivers. We need behaviours like continuing plunder of fossil fuels to become abhorrent, and a replacement system based on renewable technologies and a realisation that we all may need to use less. I feel we are constrained in that in exactly the same way XR and others get villified. The biggest crocodiles in the pond are still wanting to become bigger. The oligarchy, the 1% never went away and until we make their behaviour and models unacceptable it is hard to see how we can act other than at grass roots and locally.